Why The USFL Plays A Weak Hand in a (Potential) XFL-USFL Merger
Fit To Speak Host Eugene Obah explains why the USFL has very little leverage in a merger with the XFL
Earlier this week, Axios reported on a seemingly impending XFL-USFL merger, citing three sources that allege the spring football leagues are in advanced talks to do so, and want to have this done before the 2024 season.
In the XFL’s case, that’s only 5 months away; in the USFL’s case, that’s 7, but more likely than not, I envision a scenario such that the leagues play out their respective 2024 seasons while the deal gets sorted—and gets regulatory approval—in which case the combined league, whatever it is called (USXFL, anyone?) would start up afterward.
I have closely followed the developments of both leagues and the entire alternative football community (who are a very passionate bunch) as part of this season of Fit To Speak—which will have an all new episode next Thursday (9/28) on our YouTube channel—and as I have mentioned on this episode of the program, the questions that were asked about how each league would fare playing in the same year, especially amid more established sports leagues, were answered. The conclusion? Especially in the context of an apparently impending merger?
The USFL is playing the weaker hand.
I have enumerated the many reasons for this on previous editions of the program, so I will encourage readers to watch those shows (or, I suppose for the USFL stans, hate-watch), but for the purposes of this commentary, I will provide the Reader’s Digest version: in every measurable way, from attendance (or lack thereof), to social media following and engagement, to ratings, especially in key demographics under the age of 50—reruns of America’s Funniest Home Videos beat the USFL Championship this past July—the USFL fell short of the XFL’s truncated 2020 season and 2023 seasons. This boggled the mind of USFL President Daryl “Moose” Johnston, who stated in an interview with Sports Business Journal:
That was one of the more surprising things for me. You put our game on television up against our competition, there is no competition. We are far superior in production value, far superior in on-air talent. Recognizable names, recognizable voices. We’re pushing the envelope with all the technology we have. To me, to be on par with our competition from a ratings standpoint in Year Two, I’m still trying to figure out: How did that happen? Because our product, in my opinion, when I watch it, they’re not even close.
Combine that with the league being owned by FOX—who are still staring down the barrel of a $2.7B lawsuit—the intangibles are not good, and in most instances have never looked good. Interestingly, the 2024 season of the USFL is the last of a three-year deal that NBC signed to carry some of the games, and keep in mind that NBC may be in play for NBA rights (by the way, for those of us of a certain age, who could ever forget the iconic NBA on NBC theme?!). If a deal were to happen, and that’s a big if, then it is curtains for the USFL on NBC—and if I were an NBC exec, given the USFL’s lackluster performance—even with two broadcast networks and much more consistency in game windows—there is greater upside to broadcasting NBA games (and let’s add even SNL reruns while we’re at it) than broadcasting USFL games. And not only was it reported by journalist Mike Mitchell that NBC were not exactly thrilled with the ratings, more recently, statements from NBCUniversal’s Mark Lazarus notably omit the USFL from sports properties they wish to maintain. Even if, somehow, NBC were to renew their deal with FOX to carry the games, they at best would be shunted to Peacock or USA, and what good would that serve for FOX?
The brain trust at FOX are probably figuring at this juncture that the return on the investment—not to mention the aforementioned lawsuit of which if (more likely when) a judgment is entered against them or there is a major settlement, the money has to come from somewhere—is not worthwhile, and that, from a business standpoint and for the cause of spring football in the United States, which has not had a storied history, it is better to be better together than worse apart.
For the XFL, even with the $60M loss in the first full season since 2001—much of which can be attributed to start-up costs—there’s greater upside for them in acquiring most of the teams that would actually, unlike the USFL, play in their own markets, and the added benefit of an additional broadcast network—FOX—to air their games, which would in part solve much of the scheduling conundrum the league had this past season (the other factor was securing a venue in Vegas, of which they have pulled out from). But the biggest benefit for the XFL is that this creates the spring league that would have the star power of Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and the already established partnership with the NFL, which I predicted would happen as soon as he cut a promo at the 50 yard line at SoFi Stadium in Super Bowl LVI.
Frankly, but for the XFL 2020’s early success on ABC/ESPN and FOX, the current version of the USFL would not exist. The only real play the USFL really had was nostalgia for the ‘80s version of the league, which most likely would have continued but for the “wisdom” of one man to move their season to the fall to compete head-to-head with the NFL. The current iteration of the USFL, in my judgment, would crater in a direct head-to-head with the XFL, so FOX would be fools—if the speculation that RedBird Capital, which along with The Rock and Dany Garcia, own the XFL, were the ones making the approach to the USFL about a merger has a scintilla of truth—to not go through with this apparently impending deal.
If I were FOX, I would not fumble this at the end zone.
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